Springtime for Hartford!

Hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Ryan B Hebert, and today I'll be doing my Regional Forecast for Hartford Regionals 2019. Ultra Series is officially underway and players have been forming their own opinions on some of the best archetypes in the series. Without further ado, let's get started!

A small note for Rayquaza/Xerneas players, the hate may be strong, but we must stick together. Pull out another W for Hartford Regionals, and for X-Ray. Thank you. 

Ultra Necrozma in Ultra Series

Last time I discussed the potential of Ultra Necrozma in Ultra Series and so far, it has not proved itself worthy enough. We're still waiting for the right trainers to bring along an archetype of this team that dominates the meta-game. The problem is, with the prevalence of Xerneas in the late game of most sets, Ultra Necrozma may be able to deal unspeakable damage in early to mid-game, but if Xerneas is able to set-up, the Dragon-typing on Ultra Necrozma hurts it more than helping it. I'm personally hopeful that Ultra Necrozma will break into the top 16 of this regional. There will most likely only be a top 8 cut, but I'm slightly doubtful of this Pokémon making a splash in Hartford. I will most likely see it coming up in Santa Clara, CA or Madison, WI due to the sheer amount of time and metagame stabilization. 

Mega Pokémon

Mega Gengar is proving itself to be one of the most dominant Mega Pokémon in this metagame. If you were not able to get a watch of Wolfe Glick's team from the Berlin International Championship, he was running Mega Gengar, and he did extremely well with it!
No surprise that Mega Salamence is also dominating the ladder and tournaments as well. It's the use of Intimidate from Salamence's base ability, and then the power of its Aerilate Hyper Voice, or Aerilate Double Edge into opposing Pokémon. 

Yveltal

While Xerneas/Primal Groudon is the most popular duo to use. I would not be surprised to see this Dark/Flying Bacon Birb to show up in Hartford. You'll most likely see variants of this Pokemon with Snarl on almost all of them to counter Necrozma variants as well as Xerneas. With the help of Lightning Rod users like Raichu, Togedemaru. The only thing that can hit this bird for super-effective damage are Rock, Ice, and Fairy-type moves. Fairy type moves seem to be effective enough from Xerneas until Yveltal begins spamming Snarl to lower Xerneas's Special Attack by 1 with each use. Take note! You're most likely see the Dark-Z move or a  pinch berry on Yveltal. 

A Closer Look At Ultra Beasts
Players last weekend were treated to quite a treat when Flavio Del Pidio won the Berlin IC with Nihilego. A Rock/Poison-type Pokémon with Beast Boost. I think Nihilego can get some play right now because it's a popular counterpart, Kartana, is currently checked due to its newfound weakness to Fire Punch STAB from Primal Groudon. Mega-Rayquaza is also a popular Kartana counter as well. I am going out on a limb to suggest that Ultra Beasts will be used in increased usage as the format continues. Celesteela could also make a splash this weekend if played correctly.

Most Common Leads

This is one of my favorite portions of the Regional forecasts that I write. It's very common for many matches in this format to depend upon how one leads against their opponent. These are just some of the most common leads that I predict you will see during Hartford Regionals.

Tapu Fini/Incineroar 

This is a lead that originated from VGC 17. A popular Xerneas/Primal Groudon team lead that allows for a perfect Icy Wind from Tapu Fini, as well as a U-turn from Incineroar to switch into either Xerneas or Primal Groudon. More often than not, one wants to target the Tapu Fini as soon as possible. The pressure comes when Incineroar switches into Primal Groudon. It may be tempting to target Primal Groudon, but I assure you that your true target should be Tapu Fini. Tapu Fini can Heal Pulse, Swagger, Gravity, Nature's Madness and more. The options are endless, and it's usually holding a Pinch or Sitrus Berry to ensure that it isn't off the playing field immediately. You may even see Misty Seed Tapu Fini as well for additional Special Defense. 

Mega Gengar/Incineroar 

This lead originated in VGC 19. This lead might be the #1 in Hartford. Between the potential for Shadow Ball, Sludge Bomb, Icy Wind, and Substitute, Gengar is very dependent on whether or not you bring something to directly threaten it. Incineroar is there to either Fake Out or U-Turn. It will either aid Mega-Gengar or bring in something else to provide even more pressure than before. Remember Mega-Gengar's Shadow Tag, and that Perish Trap is a real strategy again. Always be curious about whether your opponent has Hidden Power Water or Perish Song. 

Yveltal/Tapu Koko 

This is a lead that originated in VGC 19. Yveltal will more than likely go for Snarl against Xerneas, Kyogre, Lunala, or even both Necrozma variants. If it is not immediately threatened with damage, Tailwind or even Foul Play may be used instead. If Tapu Koko is facing down anything that is threatened by its Z-move, it will use it. Similar to Tapu Koko, Volt Switch on turn 1 is also a common option for most players. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Z move from either of these Pokémon at this point in the metagame. You'll either see a Tailwind/Z Fairy/Electric move or a Dark Z and Volt Switch. 

Lunala/Incineroar

This is a lead that originated from VGC 19. If one threatens with a Primal or Xerneas at the beginning of the game, it's more than likely Lunala will burn its Z-move right away or go for a Tailwind or Trick Room. The Speed Control will depend on the team composition and whether or not it's very common partner Pokemon, Groudon, will be slow or fast. Incineroar will attempt to Fake Out or U-Turn on turn one to secure a better position for Lunala or to switch into something more threatening.

Stakataka/Incineroar
Speaking of Ultra Beasts, this has become a popular lead for some who are trying to set up trick room as soon as possible. Many Xerneas/Rayquaza teams don't like facing down this duo. Even if the opponent has Earth Power on Mega Rayquaza, a fake out from Incineroar is enough to prevent that for one turn. If that isn't enough, most Stakataka runs Shuca berry, a super effective ground reducing berry.  I wouldn't be surprised to see this lead if you're running X-Ray or even a Xerneas. It might be

Xerneas/Smeargle/Amoongus 

These lead combinations have originated way back to VGC 16 and beyond. It's always Geomancy, and then some form of redirection or Sleep spam. 

This is a common core/lead coming back in a common fashion. Geomancy Xerneas next to something that can hopefully allow Geomancy to get off and then stay on the field for at least the next turn. This hope can be in the form of Fake Out, Wide Guard, redirection, and Speed Control. These are the most common strategies players will attempt to use for Xerneas to keep Geomancy after it uses it, and Smeargle is the Pokémon to step up to the job.  

Smeargle can learn almost any move in the game, and it deserves to be recognized with it's 139 max speed stat. Being on the latter end of the Mid-Speed Tier Pokémon list, it does exceptionally well for its different functions. From Fake Out to Follow Me, to Transform, to Wide Guard or even Lovely Kiss/Spore, Smeargle will always be aiding its teammates in the best way possible.

Amoongus is a solid pick for any Primal Groudon team for a couple reasons. One, it's a Grass/Poison type that can help wall Kyogre and do big damage with Grass Knot. On the other hand, it can Clear Smog Xerneas or any stat-boosted Pokémon except Steel-Type Pokémon like Solgaleo or Stakataka. One issue I have with Amoongus now is that there is a prevalence of Mega-Rayquaza in the format. Many top players use Xerneas/Rayquaza or Rayquaza/Kyogre as a means to deal with Primal Groudon, and Amoongus will get run over by the Flying-Type powerhouse that is Mega-Rayquaza. Rage Powder is still incredibly useful for redirecting attacks, but Whimisicott and other Grass-Types are not affected by it. I think you can expect many Amoongus to be Red Card or even Payapa Berry. Don't be surprised to see Coba berry show up. Without Life Orb or Choice Band, Mega Rayquaza's Dragon Ascent will not KO an EV'd Amoongus. 

Teams to Expect

Primal Kyogre/Rayquaza

Offensive Pokémon with support Pokémon like Togedemaru to take Electric-type attacks with Lightning Rod. Fake Out Support from Incineroar as well as different methods of Speed Control from Bronzong, and potentially Gengar and Mega Rayquaza. Overall, anyone using this team is feeling pretty good against Xerneas/Groudon.  After Berlin, I am inclined to disagree with that previous statement. The Europeans really did show Americans how to use the team.

Primal Groudon/Xerneas

Either Variant of these teams are going to provide some of the most consistent results players are seeing across the globe. The top example of this team provides redirection and Spore support from Amoongus. The bottom team is a Scarf Soak Tapu Fini with Shedninja. The goal of the team is to clear all things that can possibly damage Shedninja. In doing so, you can win the game because your opponent is unable to do supereffective damage with Wonder Guard, where the Pokémon can only be damaged by Super-Effective moves. It can be damaged by weather conditions like Sandstorm or Hail, or by status conditions like Poison or Burn.

Xerneas/Mega Rayquaza 

I had to put this team down because it just won an International Championship. Overall, I think the Xerneas/Rayquaza Archetype will be popular, but I don't know if it will be this exact team. Most people try to change it up or even build something that suits them. Just keep in mind that this team is strong from the start to its end. Xerneas and Mega Rayquaza are just as threatening at the beginning of a battle, as they are compared to the latter part of a battle. 

Pokémon and Items to be aware of 

Incineroar

Don't leave anything that's weak to Incinium-Z Incineroar out on the field for the first turn of the game. If you do, it is wise to protect your Lunala, Gengar, or even Ultra Necrozma to be sure that you're not taking this powerful Z-move. Throat Chop has also increased in its usage, so if you're using Roar Incineroar yourself, you may be shut down by your opponent. 

Tapu Lele

Usually, it's run as Choice Scarf, but let's think outside the box here for a moment. Psychium-Z crystal could make a potential comeback if we ever get to a place that doesn't require a Choice Scarf. But really, it'll be Choice Scarf. 

Bronzong
Be aware that most Bronzong is running the Psychic-Z Crystal for Trick Room. This will also boost its accuracy for its use of Hypnosis. I've also seen Mental Herb being tossed around to ensure that Trick Room is able to be used, but it depends on the player using it.

Ferrothorn

You either love it or you hate it. It's going to either live what you want it to live, or it's going to be the bane of your existence in tournament play. Similar to Shedninja, if this Pokémon is able to survive attacks from its opponent, and get up a Leech Seed, Ferrothorn can usually take the game. This is especially true against Physical attackers who are afflicted by Ferrothorn's ability, Iron Barbs. Be sure to have a Fire-type move ready to take down this pain of a Pokémon in Hartford!

Rayquaza

Ask yourself, it is Choice Band, Life Orb or Focus Sash. This will help you decide how to flowchart in the midst of a battle against your opponent. Many are opting for the Life Orb variant to surprise opponents with extra damage. 

Ultra-Necrozma

Not to downplay this Pokémon but the second one evolves into the Dragon-typing, you're weak to Dazzling Gleam from Xerneas, Tapu Lele and Tapu Koko. I think that this Pokémon may have great potential, but Modest Scarf Tapu Lele or even a Max Speed Koko can attempt to take down this Ultra Pokémon. Beware of the Z-move, and keep your Incineroar close.

My Winning Prediction?

This team archetype was able to get 2nd place at Daytona Regionals and win the Berlin International Championships. I believe that it can pull through for another victory this weekend. 

Thank you for taking the time to read folks, I really appreciate it. Thoughts? Concerns? Questions? Disagreements? Let me know in the comments below or DM me on Twitter! @RyanPbHebert

Tah-tah for now- 

Ryan