Santa Comes to Town in Santa Clara!

Hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Ryan B Hebert, and today I'll be doing my Regional Forecast for Santa Clara Regionals 2019. Ultra Series is thriving and players have been creating new and emerging archetypes with only a few events. Without further ado, let's get started!

A small note for Rayquaza/Xerneas players, your time has come. Find a new archetype or master your match ups!

Ultra Necrozma in Ultra Series

The last time I discussed the potential of Ultra Necrozma in Ultra Series, I was seriously uninformed and wrong about my judgments. I admit I should have been more attentive to this intimidating Pokémon, and I congratulate Tommy Cooleen for taking Ultra Necrozma to the number one spot for Hartford Regionals! I once thought the problem was with the prevalence of Xerneas. Instead, the issue comes down to positioning and speed control. The overall power and potential of this pokémon combined with Tapu Lele's Psychic Terrain mean that it will tear through teams that rely upon Xerneas' with no issues. Primal Groudon only adds on to this power by being able to resist Fairy Type attacks from Xerneas. I am confident that at least 2 out of the top 8 teams of Santa Clara will consist of Ultra Necrozma and a given Primal Pokémon. More than likely, the pokémon will be Primal Groudon due to it's resistance to Xerneas.

A Blast From The Past To Make A Return? 
Remember when Xerneas/Kyogre was all the craze? I want to suggest that this is an archetype that will be reworked and redone to be taken to the top 16 of Santa Clara. With a rise in Ultra Necorzma, this will also mean a rise in Yveltal to counter said Dragon/Psychic-type Pokémon. The offensive power of Xerneas and Primal Kyogre to counter Ultra Necrozma/Primal Groudon seems to be something that I've yet to see in Ultra Series, and this may be the perfect opportunity to bring forth an archetype that found great usage in previous VGC 19 formats, but has yet to find it's way into Ultra Series stardom. Ethan French was able to pilot a version of the team to 7th place at Bristol Regionals*.  The most daunting change in the metagame that proves itself to be a challenge to this archetype is the increased usage of Pokémon like Bronzong, Ferrothorn, and even Dialga. Steel-types are finding their way into a format where if they can extinguish their weaknesses with Primal Kyogre, and Intimidate ground/dark type moves from Incinerator or Landorus-T, or even Yveltal. Will this team see usage in Santa Clara? Only time will tell.

*Find more tournament placings in the Trainer Tower Team hub.

Mega Pokémon

Mega Gengar has proved itself to be one of the most dominant Mega Pokémon in this metagame. The biggest questions to ask are, is it a Perish Song variant, Hidden-Power Water, or even a Gengar without Shadow Ball. These are all things to keep in mind and keep track of. There's even a chance Gengar may not be Mega. Keep an eye and ear out for Gengar in Santa Clara because it can prove itself to be your foes greatest weapon.

Mega Lucario
Meteor Mash, Close Combat, Follow Me, Bullet Punch, Protect/Detect
Mega Lucario has been making a splash lately with its base 145 attack stat against opposing Xerneas/Rayquaza teams. While it may be fast at 112 base speed, Mega Rayquaza will outspeed at base 115 speed. More importantly, this is a pokémon that can pack a punch, and redirect attacks into itself with Follow Me. It's more than likely to have Meteor Mash and Close Combat. The last two moves become a toss-up between Follow Me or Bullet Punch, and then Protect or Detect. I expect to see this pokémon on most Xeneas/Lunala teams this weekend.

Mega Lopunny
Return, Fake Out, Protect, Encore, Fake Tears
Mega Lopunny is fast. Mega Lopunny can use Fake Out. Mega Lopunny can learn Fake Tears, Encore and Protect, and it gets Scrappy as it's Mega ability, so watch out Gengar because Mega Lopunny is here. This pokémon is another example of a Mega Fighting type pokémon that is able to put out big damage with it's Normal and Fighting-type moves,  as well as being able to use things like Encore and Fake Tears to punish your slower opponents and pick up knockouts that might have been missed before.

Mega Salamence
Mega Salamence is dominating the ladder and tournaments as well. It's the use of Intimidate from Salamence's base ability, and then the power of its Mega ability, Aerilate, means that Hyper Voice, or Double-Edge into opposing Pokémon allows for powerful flying type damage unlike the world has ever seen before.

Yveltal

While Xerneas/Primal Groudon is the most popular duo to use. I would not be surprised to see this Dark/Flying Bacon Birb to show up in Santa Clara. You'll most likely see variants of this Pokemon with Snarl on almost all of them to counter Necrozma variants as well as Xerneas. With the help of Lightning Rod users like Raichu, Togedemaru. The only thing that can hit this bird for super-effective damage are Rock, Ice, and Fairy-type moves. Fairy type moves seem to be effective enough from Xerneas until Yveltal begins spamming Snarl to lower Xerneas's Special Attack by 1 with each use. Take note! You're most likely see the Dark-Z move or a pinch berry on Yveltal. 

Most Common Leads

This is one of my favorite portions of the Regional forecasts that I write. It's very common for many matches in this format to depend upon how one leads against their opponent. These are just some of the most common leads that I predict you will see during Santa Clara Regionals.

Tapu Fini/Incineroar 

This is a lead that originated from VGC 17. A popular Xerneas/Primal Groudon team lead that allows for a perfect Icy Wind from Tapu Fini, as well as a U-turn from Incineroar to switch into either Xerneas or Primal Groudon. More often than not, one wants to target the Tapu Fini as soon as possible. The pressure comes when Incineroar switches into Primal Groudon. It may be tempting to target Primal Groudon, but I assure you that your true target should be Tapu Fini. Tapu Fini can Heal Pulse, Swagger, Gravity, Nature's Madness and more. The options are endless, and it's usually holding a Pinch or Sitrus Berry to ensure that it isn't off the playing field immediately. You may even see Misty Seed Tapu Fini as well for additional Special Defense. Watch out for more offensive Tapu Fini's as the season continues. Players are trending towards Moonblast as an alternative for extra damage to be done on the field from this lead.

Mega Gengar/Incineroar 

This lead originated in VGC 19. This lead will be the #1 in Santa Clara. Between the potential for  Sludge Bomb, Hidden Power Water, Substitute, and Perish Song, Gengar is very offensively or defensively adaptable to whether or not you bring something to directly threaten it. Incineroar is there to either Fake Out or U-Turn. It will also provide the much coveted -1 to Attack from Incineroar's Intimidate. It will either aid Mega-Gengar or bring in something else to provide even more pressure than before. Remember Mega-Gengar's Shadow Tag, and that Perish Trap is a real strategy again. Always be curious about whether your opponent has Hidden Power Water or Perish Song. 

Incineroar/Nihilego

This is a lead that originated from VGC 19. While the two existed previously in other formats, I like to think that ever since X-Ray Nihilego won EUIC, it's been a thing since then. Normally, it would be countered by Ultra Beasts like Kartana or Pheromosa, and with the pressure and presence of Mega-Rayquaza and Mega Salamence, those two pokémon become dwarfed in comparison to the Special Attacking Rock/Poison-type Pokémon known as Nihilego. It's quite fast, and it's move pool and typing is strategically convenient against the most popular lead in the format, Incineroar/Tapu Fini. With an Incineroar beside Nihilego at 91 speed to outspeed Turbo Amoongus (Max Speed 90), you'll be sure to guarantee your Fake Out from Incineroar will move first and allow Nihilego to go for it's powerful Rockium Z move for a knock out into an opposing Incineroar. If not the Z-move, a Sludge Bomb into a Tapu Fini that will most certainly not be appreciating the STAB Poison-type move. The 170 max speed on Nihilego is incredibly fast, and provides a fast, offensive option and lead to many teams that start off mid-speed and then divulge into their own speed control. What I mean is, your opponent may be reliant upon Tailwind or Trick Room to start off a set, rather than starting off with Pokémon that outspeeds most common leading Pokémon.

Yveltal/Tapu Koko 

This is a lead that originated in VGC 19. Easily one of the more popular leads of Moon Series, and in latter Sun Series, this lead has been officially dwarfed by the emerging archetypes that out damage and outdo what this opening lead has done in the past. A probable Tailwind or even a Snarl against an opposing Xerneas team may be in the works for Yveltal, and at this point in time, the Fairy-Z move on Tapu Koko is the only real viable solution to Delta Stream from Mega Rayquaza.

Xerneas/Smeargle/Amoongus/Incineroar

These lead combinations have originated way back to VGC 16 and beyond. It's always Geomancy, and then some form of redirection or Sleep spam. 

This is a common core/lead coming back in a common fashion. Geomancy Xerneas next to something that can hopefully allow Geomancy to get off and then stay on the field for at least the next turn. This hope can be in the form of Fake Out, Wide Guard, redirection, and Speed Control. These are the most common strategies players will attempt to use for Xerneas to keep Geomancy after it uses it, and Smeargle is the Pokémon to step up to the job.  

Smeargle can learn almost any move in the game, and it deserves to be recognized with it's 139 max speed stat. Being on the latter end of the Mid-Speed Tier Pokémon list, it does exceptionally well for its different functions. From Fake Out to Follow Me, to Transform, to Wide Guard or even Lovely Kiss/Spore, Smeargle will always be aiding its teammates in the best way possible.

Amoongus is a solid pick for any Primal Groudon team for a couple reasons. One, it's a Grass/Poison type that can help wall Kyogre and do big damage with Grass Knot. On the other hand, it can Clear Smog Xerneas or any stat-boosted Pokémon except Steel-Type Pokémon like Solgaleo or Stakataka. One issue I have with Amoongus now is that there is a prevalence of Mega-Rayquaza in the format. Many top players use Xerneas/Rayquaza or Rayquaza/Kyogre as a means to deal with Primal Groudon, and Amoongus will get run over by the Flying-Type powerhouse that is Mega-Rayquaza. Rage Powder is still incredibly useful for redirecting attacks, but Whimisicott and other Grass-Types are not affected by it. I think you can expect many Amoongus to be Red Card or even Payapa Berry. Don't be surprised to see Coba berry show up. Without Life Orb or Choice Band, Mega Rayquaza's Dragon Ascent will not KO an EV'd Amoongus. 

Incineroar is a newly added pick to sit besides Xerneas. Combined pressure with Fake Out means that Geomancy is much more likely to occur. Incimium Z has become increasingly more popular over the past few weeks and should be an expected option for Incinceroar to burn up on turn 2 unless the trainer uses it turn 1 instead of Fake Out. Intimidate from Incineroar also means that anything attacking Xerneas physically is less likely to be able to knock out Xerneas. 

Teams to Expect

Primal Groudon/Xerneas

Either Variant of these teams are going to provide some of the most consistent results players are seeing across the globe. The top example of this team provides redirection and Spore support from Amoongus. The bottom team is a Scarf Soak Tapu Fini with Shedninja. The goal of the team is to clear all things that can possibly damage Shedninja. In doing so, you can win the game because your opponent is unable to do supereffective damage with Wonder Guard, where the Pokémon can only be damaged by Super-Effective moves. It can be damaged by weather conditions like Sandstorm or Hail, or by status conditions like Poison or Burn.

Xerneas/Mega Rayquaza 

I had to put this team down because it just won an International Championship. Overall, I think the Xerneas/Rayquaza Archetype will be popular, but I don't know if it will be this exact team. Most people try to change it up or even build something that suits them. Just keep in mind that this team is strong from the start to its end. Xerneas and Mega Rayquaza are just as threatening at the beginning of a battle, as they are compared to the latter part of a battle.

Primal Kyogre/Rayquaza

Offensive Pokémon with support Pokémon like Togedemaru to take Electric-type attacks with Lightning Rod. Fake Out Support from Incineroar as well as different methods of Speed Control from Bronzong, and potentially Gengar and Mega Rayquaza. Overall, anyone using this team is feeling pretty good against Xerneas/Groudon. After Berlin, I am inclined to disagree with that previous statement. The Europeans really did show Americans how to use the team.

Lunala/Xerneas

The Lunalium Z move is still as powerful as ever in this metagame, and with Tapu Lele, Psyshock is even more powerful in Psychic Terrain. The real cause for alarm with this team are the two forms of redirection from Mega Lucario and from Amoongus. Whether you need to redirect with Follow Me or Rage Powder, there is incredible potential to protect Lunala and Xerneas from any single target attack.

Primal Kyogre/Yveltal

 

This team composition has rarely been seen since April. More recent events have had one or two appearances, but it's not the most fearsome core when you're running Xerneas/Mega Rayquaza. I don't have too much to say about this core beside it's Trick Room and Tailwind potential. You'll more than likely see a Z move on Yveltal and Incineroar. 

Teams to be aware of that I'm not familiar with:

Primal Kyogre/Necrozma-Dawn Wings

Palkia/Mega Rayquaza

Pokémon and Items to be aware of 

Incineroar

Don't leave anything that's weak to Incinium-Z Incineroar out on the field for the first turn of the game. If you do, it is wise to protect your Lunala, Gengar, or even Ultra Necrozma to be sure that you're not taking this powerful Z-move. Throat Chop has also increased in its usage, so if you're using Roar Incineroar yourself, you may be shut down by your opponent. 

Bronzong
Be aware that most Bronzongs are running the Psychic-Z Crystal for Trick Room. This will also boost its accuracy for its use of Hypnosis.

Ferrothorn
You either love it or you hate it. It's going to either live what you want it to live, or it's going to be the bane of your existence in tournament play. Similar to Shedninja, if this Pokémon is able to survive attacks from its opponent, and get up a Leech Seed, Ferrothorn can usually take the game. This is especially true against Physical attackers who are afflicted by Ferrothorn's ability, Iron Barbs. Be sure to have a Fire-type move ready to take down this pain of a Pokémon in Santa Clara! Watch out for potential Assault Vest variants!

Rayquaza

Ask yourself, it is Choice Band, Life Orb or Focus Sash. This will help you decide how to flowchart in the midst of a battle against your opponent. Many are opting for the Life Orb variant to surprise opponents with extra damage. They may be carrying a Dragon-Type move now to help with increased usage of Dialga.

Dialga
Dialga is bulky, it has convenient typing against Primal Kyogre, and Ice or Dragon beam/pulse for Mega Rayquaza. Dialga is mainly used for Speed Control purposes with its use of Trick Room. Dialga is usually holding a Pinch Berry or even a Sitrus Berry as well. Things like Moonblast or Precipice Blades may not be able to knock out this pokémon like one would thing.

Crobat
Crobat can learn Tailwind, Taunt, and Super Fang. It has base 200 Speed and has the ability of, Inner Focus, to prevent it from being flinched. This pokémon is extremely threatening next to pokémon like Primal Groudon or Kyogre, or Geomancy Xerneas. A fast Super Fang pokémon should be

Giratina-O
Where is it? Why consider it? Giratina-O has Levitate to avoid a powerful Precipice Blades from Primal Groudon, but it's Ghost/Dragon typing means that it is weak to Ultra Necrozma, Lunala, and Xerneas. It doesn't stand a chance against most teams and cores, but it's access to Speed Control is useful, and Shadow Force can be used to be an interesting counter to teams that rely upon using Protect.

Whimiscott
I am the biggest supporter of Whimsicott. I truly believe there are team compositions that can be glued together by the correct 4 moves on this Pokémon. This pokémon is known for its Prankster ability. This ability allows trainers to use status moves with priority. Notable moves include Tailwind, Fake Tears, Encore, and Taunt. Other moves to be aware of include Endeavor, Grass Knot, Moonblast, and Trick Room. There are many more moves, but these are the moves that I believe are most important. Be aware that if you have Tapu Lele, your opponent most likely has Tapu Fini to counter the Psychic Terrain, and if they do not, it's more than likely they won't bring the Whimsicott unless they have an attacking move and Tailwind to use.

Murkrow
This pokémon also has Prankster and it's Dark/Flying Typing is convenient because it means that opposing pokémon with Prankster cannot taunt Murkrow. The more interesting move on Murkrow is its usage of the move Quash. Quash targets a pokémon and makes sure that their move, moves last before all other pokémon on the field. Murkrow can also Tailwind and Taunt.


My Winning Prediction?

This team archetype has been rising through the ranks with the increased usage of Primal Groudon/Ultra Necrozma. I believe this archetype can pull through for a victory this weekend. 

Thank you for taking the time to read folks, I really appreciate it. Thoughts? Concerns? Questions? Disagreements? Let me know in the comments below or DM me on Twitter! @RyanPbHebert

Tah-tah for now- 

Ryan