Ultra Take! On A New Format!
Hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Ryan B Hebert, and today I'll be doing my Regional Forecast for Daytona Regionals 2019. Ultra Series is officially here and players have been lapping up the luxury of finally participating in a format that many have waited for all season. If you've been one of those individuals, your time is now, but, also, you have much to catch up on.
A small note for our Primal Groudon users attending Daytona Regionals: Beware Hidden Power Water
Ultra Necrozma in Ultra Series
Looking back at Sun and Moon Series in VGC 19, we've learned the potential of a few restricted Pokémon not previously known to us. First, we have Necrozma. Not just any old Necrozma, but Necrozma-Dusk Mane and Necrozma-Dawn Wings. The first being a Steel/Psychic type, and the latter being a Ghost/Psychic type. Each one, especially Dusk Mane due to its ability Prism Armor, had great potential at the start of the season. Many Necrozma Dusk Mane players chose to pair with Kyogre, in order to set up Drizzle. Drizzle is an ability that causes Rain during a battle to weaken the power of Fire-type moves. Dawn Wings saw little play due to its typing and the fact that Lunala on its own is much better. The difference between these Pokémon in Ultra series compared to Sun and Moon, however, is the inclusion of Ultranecroznium-Z or otherwise known as Light That Burns The Sky; A Psychic-type Z-Move that is used off of the move Photon Geyser. This is made usable when the player is able to Ultra Burst their Necrozma D.M. or D.W., to turn into a powerful Dragon/Psychic type.
Primal Reversions
With the reintroduction of Red Orb and Blue Orb, Kyogre and Groudon's Primal forms come back to full force in Ultra Series. This also includes Mega Rayquaza with Dragon Ascent as well. Each form of the legendary trio has new abilities that come with their new forms. Primordial Sea for Primal Kyogre, Desolate Land for Primal Groudon, and Delta Stream for Mega Rayquaza. Each of these abilities stays on the field as long as the Pokemon with the ability is active. The ability is disrupted by the opposite ability being used by another Primal entering the field or if Delta Stream from Rayquaza becomes active, or if the ability Cloud Nine is on the field from a select few Pokemon that have the ability. Not only do we have new abilities for these Primal reversions and the Mega Rayquaza, but Groudon is also now a Ground/Fire type. It resists Fairy-type moves that come from Xerneas, but it is now 4x weak to Water-type moves. These Primals may not be the fastest, but their offensive and defensive potential make them viable enough to be some of the most popular Pokémon on every player's team. Most teams will have one of the three weather trio pokemon or even two of them on the same team.
Mega Pokémon
Once again, the Mega Pokémon have returned. I remember when Mega's were first incorporated into the games. With Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire, we had the introduction of even more Mega Pokémon. I was in awe to see how these Pokémon would be used and In 2018, we had Mega Pokémon in the format and Mega Gengar, Mega Salamence and Mega Mawile reigned supreme. Weather-related Mega Pokémon like Mega Charizard Y and Mega Tyranitar were fantastic to use in previous formats, but they hold no place in 2019 Ultra Series. The usage of these Mega Pokemon in a format that has Primals means that if they try to set up Drought or Sand Stream in Primordial Sea or Desolate Land, it won't work.
However, there are some Mega Pokemon that will make a difference in the Ultra Series. Mega Salamence will only get faster as a Mega Pokemon, and it's offensive potential as a Special Attacker or Attacker means that it has some variability. Salmence can learn Tailwind, as well as Roar.
Mega Gengar is back to not only be a speedy, offensive powerhouse with Shadow Ball to hit Lunala, and Sludge Bomb to also hit Xerneas, but it's also back to be bulky, Perish Song abuser with Substitute and Icy Wind. Mega Gyrados is going to be an interesting counter to Primal Groudon/Lunala teams because Gyrados will resist the Fire and Ground-type attacks, as well as resisting the Moongeist Beam from Lunala. I think it is entirely possible for a non-mega team to exist. You're guaranteed to see at least one though.
Lunala
It's as good as ever. Lunalium-Z off of Moongeist Beam is still a devastating attack for any Pokemon to take in Ultra Series. Besides that, it's still fast enough to outspeed most other viable Pokemon. As well as having access to Trick Room and Tailwind. It can also learn Roar. It will most likely be more offensive to deal with bigger threats like either Necrozma variant or even Xerneas. Be prepared to face off against this Pokemon once again as you head into regionals on Day 1.
Yveltal
While Xerneas/Primal Groudon is the most popular duo to use. I would not be surprised to see this Dark/Flying Bacon Birb to show up in Daytona. You'll most likely see variants of this Pokemon with Snarl on almost all of them to counter Necrozma variants as well as Xerneas. With the help of Lightning Rod users like Raichu, Togedemaru, and Mega Manectric, the only thing that can hit this bird for super-effective damage are Rock, Ice and Fairy-type moves. Fairy type moves seem to be effective enough from Xerneas until Yveltal begins spamming Snarl to lower Xerneas's Special Attack by 1 with each use.
Xerneas
This Pokemon is still the powerhouse it was in Sun and Moon Series 2019, and in Ultra it faces some new competition. It welcomes the Dragon/Psychic-type Ultra Necrozma with open arms. When it comes to the Primal Reversion Pokemon, it is a different story. Both of the Primals can easily live a +2 Moonblast and still have about 30-40% of their total health left. The question becomes whether or not one can get enough chip damage or help from their partner Pokemon to ensure Xerneas is able to get the knock out on most opponents. Redirection Pokemon like Smeargle, Amoongus, and Togekiss are very common and will be abusers of making sure that nothing stops Geomancy on Xerneas.
Trick Room in Ultra
I thought it would be worthy to talk about how Trick Room comes back into the forefront of Ultra Series. Primal Groudon and Kyogre can either be run as an offensive abuser or can be played as very slow, Trick Room Pokemon. Common Trick Room partners include Bronzong, Stakataka, and Ferrothorn. You'll more than likely see Bronzong use Z-Trick Room to boost its accuracy to be able to Hypnosis the next turn. I recommend bringing a Z-Move user capable of knocking it out because sometimes folks will run the Mental herb to prevent Taunt from affecting Bronzong. Stakataka is most likely going to be holding a Shuca berry for opposing Groudons. Ferrothorn is a solid partner Pokemon to have to punish those who try to use Trick Room against your offensive team. Leech Seed, Power Whip, and Gyro Ball prove to be effective and high damaging moves against most teams. An Occo Berry to weaken Fire-Type moves or an Assault Vest could be expected on Ferrothorn. Necrozma Dusk Mane could also have Trick Room as a way to counter offensive Tailwind teams or to counter opposing Trick Rooms. With Ultra Necrozma maxing out at 199, one must wonder if it is the most viable move to have over Protect or Calm Mind.
Most Common Leads
This is one of my favorite portions of the Regional forecasts that I write. It's very common for many matches in this format to depend upon how one leads against their opponent. These are just some of the most common leads that I predict you will see during Daytona Regionals.
Tapu Fini/Incineroar
This is a lead that originated from VGC 17. A popular Xerneas/Primal Groudon team lead that allows for a perfect Icy Wind from Tapu Fini, as well as a U-turn from Incineroar to switch into either Xerneas or Primal Groudon. More often than not, one wants to target the Tapu Fini as soon as possible. The pressure comes when Incineroar switches into Primal Groudon. It may be tempting to target Primal Groudon, but I assure you that your true target should be Tapu Fini. Tapu Fini can Heal Pulse, Swagger, Gravity, Nature's Madness and more. The options are endless, and it's usually holding a Pinch or Sitrus Berry to ensure that it isn't off the playing field immediately.
Lunala/Incineroar
This is a lead that originated from VGC 19. If one threatens with a Primal or Xerneas at the beginning of the game, it's more than likely Lunala will burn its Z-move right away or go for a Tailwind or Trick Room. The Speed Control will depend on the team composition and whether or not it's very common partner Pokemon, Groudon, will be slow or fast. Incineroar will attempt to Fake Out or U-Turn on turn one to secure a better position for Lunala or to switch into something more threatening.
Yveltal/Tapu Koko
This is a lead that originated in VGC 19. Yveltal will more than likely go for Snarl against Xerneas, Kyogre, Lunala, or even both Necrozma variants. If it is not immediately threatened with damage, Tailwind or even Foul Play may be used instead. If Tapu Koko is facing down anything that is threatened by its Z-move, it will use it. Similar to Tapu Koko, Volt Switch on turn 1 is also a common option for most players.
Mega Gengar/Incineroar
This lead originated in VGC 19. This lead might not be #1 in Daytona, and yet, I feel that in my heart, I must put it down. Between the potential for Shadow Ball, Sludge Bomb, Icy Wind, and Substitute, Gengar is very dependent on whether or not you bring something to directly threaten it. Incineroar is there to either Fake Out or U-Turn. It will either aid Mega-Gengar or bring in something else to provide even more pressure than before. Remember Shadow Tag, and that Perish Trap is a real strategy again. I will need to study this lead in more depth myself, but for right now, this is my best take.
Xerneas/Smeargle/Amoongus
These lead combinations have originated way back to VGC 16 and beyond. It's always Geomancy, and then some form of redirection or Sleep spam.
Smeargle can learn almost any move in the game, and it deserves to be recognized with it's 139 max speed stat. Being on the latter end of the Mid-Speed Tier Pokémon list, it does exceptionally well for its different functions. From Fake Out to Follow Me, to Transform, to Wide Guard or even Lovely Kiss/Spore, Smeargle will always be aiding its teammates in the best way possible.
Amoongus is a solid pick for any Primal Groudon team for a couple reasons. One, it's a Grass/Poison type that can help wall Kyogre and do big damage with Grass Knot. On the other hand, it can Clear Smog Xerneas or any stat-boosted Pokémon except Steel-Type Pokémon like Solgaleo or Stakataka. One issue I have with Amoongus now is that there is a prevalence of Mega-Rayquaza in the format. Many top players use Xerneas/Rayquaza or Rayquaza/Kyogre as a means to deal with Primal Groudon, and Amoongus will get run over by the Flying-Type powerhouse that is Mega-Rayquaza. Rage Powder is still incredibly useful for redirecting attacks, but Whimisicott and other Grass-Types are not affected by it.
Teams to Expect
Primal Groudon/Xerneas
Easily the most consistent team in the format. Find different ways to power up and ensure the longevity of your Groudon, or provide the right conditions for your Xerneas to be able to Geomancy and sweep.
Primal Groudon/Yveltal
Primal Groudon is an offensive powerhouse if you set up Speed Control with Yveltal, Mega Salamence or Bronzong. The Z-Move is probably on Bronzong or Tapu Koko. Sometimes there's a Z-move on Yveltal as well, but it's not very common.
Xerneas/Rayquaza
Rayquaza can set up to be fantastic. With Flying-type coverage on Grass-types like Amoongus or Tsareena, and either Earth Power for Necrozma Dusk Mane/Incineroar coverage, or Extreme Speed to get the final knock out on a low health Pokémon.
Primal Kyogre/Rayquaza
Offensive Pokémon with support Pokémon like Togedemaru to take Electric-type attacks with Lightning Rod. Fake Out Support from Incineroar as well as different methods of Speed Control from Bronzong, and potentially Gengar and Mega Rayquaza. Overall, anyone using this team is feeling pretty good against Xerneas/Groudon.
Pokémon and Items to Be Aware Of
Tapu Lele
Usually, it's run as Focus Sash, but let's think outside the box here for a moment. Psychium-Z crystal could make a potential comeback if we ever get to a place that doesn't require a Choice Scarf. We'll have to see where the meta-game shifts in the coming month after Daytona Regionals.
Rayquaza
Ask yourself, it is Choice Band, Life Orb or Focus Sash. This will help you decide how to flowchart in the midst of a battle against your opponent.
Wash-Rotom
Between Levitate, its Water/Electric Typing, and more status moves, it's a hidden party of tricks. It's also pretty bulky as well. It could be Assault Vest, Pinch Berry or even Wide Lens! Look out!
Ultra-Necrozma
Not to downplay this Pokémon but the second one evolves into the Dragon-typing, you're weak to Dazzling Gleam from Xerneas, Tapu Lele and Tapu Koko. I think that this Pokémon may have great potential, but Modest Scarf Tapu Lele or even a Max Speed Koko can attempt to take down this Ultra Pokémon. Beware of the Z-move, and keep your Incineroar close.
My Winning Prediction
I personally believe that Xerneas/Rayquaza will top Daytona Regionals. If it is able to pilot itself around non-weather teams, it is set for a victory in Daytona. I'd like to think the team has Tapu Koko and Staktaka alongside the main two restricted Pokémon.
Thank you for taking the time to read folks, I really appreciate it. Thoughts? Concerns? Questions? Disagreements? Let me know in the comments below or DM me on Twitter! @RyanPbHebert
Tah-tah for now-
Ryan
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