Jump Over The Moon With Monkeys In Fort Wayne
How We Doin' Ryan B Hebert here and welcome back to my blog! I appreciate you stopping by, and I assure you, it's going to be pretty hype. Today I look back at Moon Series and do a more localized approach on what teams to expect in Fort Wayne for the Back to Back Double MSS/PC's March 30th and 31st. Without further ado, let's get started!
The competition will be fierce in Fort Wayne. With players from Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and more all being in attendance. Could we even see some international players at our events? It's entirely possible. For a doubleheader MSS/PC weekend, at the end of the Moon Series format, it's a very coveted and alluring situation for players right over the Canadian border; if they wanted to make the trip. With this in mind, I've kept my eyes, ears, and heart open to the many possibilities available to our local area. I'll be focusing my claims and predictions based on Collinsville Regionals, Brampton Regionals, Greensboro Regionals, and local events to nearby states and international communities.
As always, I begin this section with some expected leads from opponents. There's nothing better than being prepared for a well-played opponent. The first turn in Moon Series can sometimes determine an entire game. Knowing how to spot your opponents leads and what they might do is extremely important.
Groudon + Venusaur
Imagine a bright golden sun radiating upon your luscious flower back to double your speed due to an ability called Chlorophyll. Yeah, that's the power of Venusaur, and while it looks like an offensive beast, it truly is the play due to it's offentsive and supportive pressure.
This lead has been around for a 'hot' second. It's very common for this lead to be coming out because typically Groudon tends to be slower than most Kyogres. Thus, you set up Groudon's Drought ability and get Sun up on the field to activate Venusaur's Chlorophyll ability to double Venusuar's speed. After the initial set up before Turn 1, a player must ask themselves whether or not they brought a counter to Venusaur's Sleep Powder. Simple solutions include Tapu Koko's Electric Terrain or Tapu Fini's Misty Terrain. If you have neither of these options, remember that Venusaur typically has a Focus Sash so you cannot rely on Choice Scarf Tapu Lele to take Venusaur off the field before putting something to sleep. A Fake Out into Venusaur is always a solid choice, but then you're left with the always moral dilemma of leaving Groudon unchecked. The item on Groudon varies on the team composition. You could be staring down a Berry or Life Orb Variant that has Swords Dance. You could be facing down a Choice Band Variant that is meant to apply as much offensive pressure as possible. Be prepared to bring counters to Sleep Powder, and to offensive pressure to Groudon.
I respect this pairing quite a bit, but I can see where it can fall short. Sometimes players can tend to be creative with their item on Venusaur, but anything other than Focus Sash has to have a really good reason to be there. It could be that Life Orb Venusaur in Sun will allow for a powerful Grass Knot or Sludge Bomb, but it means that one super-effective attack could be taking down Venusaur early in the game.
Lunala+Incineroar
I've mentioned Lunala already in the past two previews I've done so far. In this lead, if your opponent has a Groudon, chances are that the Turn 1 will consist of your opponent going for the Trick Room, and Fake Out option from Incineroar. In late Moon series, however, look out for the Tailwind as well.
Incineroar is once again, as it has been since it was released with its hidden ability, Intimidate, one of the best glue pokemon that can be put on a team. Its move pool has access to Fake Out, Knock Off, Snarl, Roar, U-turn, Flare Blitz, Darkest Lariat and more. It's too good not to have on a team, and you need to have a good reason to not run this pokemon. Its bulk is good enough so that it can live Precipice Blades at -1 from Groudon, and it can even live the +2 Moonblast from Xerneas. This pokemon brings consistency due to its ability to handle multiple different threats. This will be a go-to for my trainers during the regional tomorrow.
Lunala + Tapu Koko
This is one I've written about constantly. This offensive powerhouse of a lead not only threatens most teams, and I found that the options a player has with this lead are incredibly vast. For example, during Dallas Regionals, Taunt, Nature's Madness, Volt Switch, and Electro-Web were quite common from Tapu Koko, and now you're more likely to see the Electrium Z move coming from a physical Koko. The rise of physical Koko was inevitable due to the increased usage of Yveltal. With the rise of physical Koko came the question of whether or not Yveltal was worth bringing to games if you not only had to put EV's into your Special Defense but into your regular physical defense as well. The physical Koko was also a great tech against most Kyogre because Kyogre could usually live a Thunder from opposing Kyogre, there was no way a Kyogre was going to have the physical bulk to survive a Wild Charge from Tapu Koko.
What's really interesting now is that on the Ho-Oh/Kyogre teams, with the introduction of Raichu or Togedemaru, Tapu Koko is no longer as good as it used to be. To rely on an electric type attack to take down anything on a team with a Lightning Rod ability is a big risk you might have to take during a battle.
Lunala is the “mystery” of this lead. The move pool of Lunala is vast with options of Speed Control, Roar, Hypnosis, Wide Guard, Psych Up, and Will O’ Wisp. With its powerful base 200 Lunalium Z move, Menancing Moonraze Maelstrom, it’s a threat to be reckoned with. That is if it’s holding its Z-crystal. At one point earlier in the format, I critiqued the use of a Z-Crystal for something else, but if you're not using the Z-crystal this weekend, you're throwing.
Ho-Oh/Raichu/Togedemaru
This is probably one of the scariest leads to face down in the game if you do not have Tapu Fini on your team. Without Misty Terrain, Raichu or Togedemaru are free to Nuzzle everything on your side of the field and paralyze all of your Pokemon. I learned this lesson the hard way and have prepped for the lead accordingly. Keep in mind that Fake Out, Nuzzle, Volt Switch, Encore, and more moves are capable of coming out from Raichu. With it's impressive speed stat as well, you need to be really careful after going for a Geomancy or even a Protect. Togedemaru gets Super Fang. That's a PSA and reminder to you all.
Ho-Oh really is a legendary I didn't expect to see get much success, and then it goes and wins two events in the same weekend. I was completely wrong and players on two different sides of the world blew away my expectations. Besides that, you need to know whether or not it's a Safety Goggles Ho-Oh or if it is a Flynium Z varient, or if it's a bulkier, Berry Varient. Usually, Ho-Oh carries Sacred Fire, Brave Bird, Recover and Tailwind. It doens't have too many other moves. It could use Roost, but that would risk dropping onto the ground that turn, and in front of a Groudon, that would not be very optimal.
Xerneas+ Smeargle/Amoongus
(I reposted this take from the previous article, it's still VERY true for this weekend) This is a common lead coming back in a common fashion. Geomancy Xerneas next to something that can hopefully allow Geomancy to get off and then stay for at least the next turn. This could be in the form of fake out, wide guard, redirection, and Speed Control. These are the most common strategies players will attempt to use for Xerneas to keep Geomancy after it uses it, and Smeargle is the Pokémon to step up to the job.
Facing off against this team should be quite simple in the mind of any player. Please, before you lock in your Pokémon, remember to deny Smeargle the chance to put you to sleep with Spore or Lovely Kiss. If you don’t have a way to stop Smeargle from putting you to sleep, the battle is as good as done. Pivoting with your sleeping Pokémon will take away precious sleep turns and your opponents Xerneas will simply take advantage of the situation and Geomancy. During the next turn, Xerneas will begin its reign of power by fainting your sleeping Pokémon and will win the battle.
Overall, you must have a game plan against this lead. Whether it's a taunt user, a faster fake out than max speed Smeargle (139 speed), or some other creative way, have a plan and be confident in yourself. Heck, even a Safety Goggles Stakataka could do the trick!
I once said, "Amoongus is also going to be a game changer during this regional for the usage of the item Red Card." Will it though? Jon Hu is going to be commentating and not playing. If anything, be on the lookout for odd Pokemon that seem off or different from the original team composition. Ask yourself, if I'm playing Xerneas, does that Pokemon have a Red Card to get rid of Geomancy? Red Card, by the way, makes it so that when a pokemon is hit by an attack, the pokemon that is responsible for attacking is instantly switched out into something else. It's the perfect little strategy against opposing Xerneas and it can change the tide of the game in the matter of one turn.
Tapu Fini/Solgaleo
This is a common lead Zygarde users will bring to match-ups. Solgaleo’s diverse move pool can be used without an opponent fully respect what the Metal Lion is capable of. Usually, the standard set up is to use Swagger from Tapu Fini onto Solgaleo, in order to raise the Attack stat to +2. From there, you can expect a powerful Solgalium Z move to come out and take out almost any Pokémon you try to put on the field. Your opponent may try to bait a fire type or ground type move into the Solgaleo slot, and a Zygarde switch in could be just what your opponent wants. The Tapu Fini would still use Swagger, and it would hopefully land on Zygarde as it switches in.
Tapu Fini/Incineroar
This is a calling to VGC 17, and it still works to this day. Tapu Fini can set up an Icy Wind, Light Screen or even a Swagger after Incineroar uses Fake Out or outplays the opponent and goes for a U-Turn switch in. There’s not too much to this lead because it isn’t on the field for too long. Be aware of the full team composition and ask yourself what could be switching into the Incineroar slot next to Tapu Fini. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Groudon on the team. In that case, a Swagger, Gravity, Heal Pulse Tapu Fini is what you should come to expect.
Honorable mentions:
Dialga/Incineroar
Dialga can live almost anything and get Trick Room Up. Incineroar knows Fake Out. Simple. Watch out for a Sitrus Berry, Mental Herb, or Z-move on Dialga. If you’re running a Groudon team, beware of Icium-Z.
Crobat
Super Fang, Tailwind, Taunt, Brave Bird, Quick Guard and more. This Pokémon is a great set up turn 1 and can stay on the field a long time if not dealt with. Expect a Focus Sash or Payapa Berry.
Blaziken/Bisharp
THIS. LEAD. IRKS. ME. SO. MUCH. WHY. DOES. IT. EXIST. Expect a Turn 1 Protect from Blaziken or a Flare Blitz if you aren’t threatening it with a Fake Out. Bisharp appreciates when you lead with Incineroar or Landorus-Therrian so be careful with spamming Intimidate in front of Defiant Bisharp. You don’t want to know what +1, Dark Aura Boosted, Sucker Punch can do to your Pokémon. Iron Head will also do quite a bit of damage as well.
While being knowledgeable about the top leads to expect is helpful for teambuilding, knowing about the actual teams themselves is also helpful. Here are some teams to be aware of this weekend. I'm a personal believer in not listing names of players at events because you truly never know what player will rise to the challenge of being able to top cut the event with any team their heart may choose. I also do not want to target or single players out for their past success. I'd rather present the teams themselves and have us prepare for those team compositions, not the actual player you'll be facing.
Greensboro Regional Team: Ho-Oh/Kyogre
Otherwise known as Chicken/Fish, and yes, Joe, I call it a fish. Thank you. I think this is an incredibly strong choice for this weekend. It reflects the end of the established meta-game and can do quite well in pulling a game back if you were once losing in the first few turns. It relies upon stalling or knocking out anything that threatens Ho-Oh or Kyogre. Otherwise, it's a fantastic team, and Alex, congrats again.
Team report: https://www.trainertower.com/a-rainbow-after-the-rain-greensboro-regional-champions-report/
Brampton Regional Team:
No team report for this team. This is an example of a Kyogre/Xerneas/Tornadus team. You set up your Speed Control with Tornadus, and you can attempt to redirect moves from Xerneas with Rage Powder from Amoongus, or Fake Out an opponent's Pokemon with Incineroar. The team is consistent at sweeping, and you need to be on the lookout for where Focus Sash is, where the Z-Crystal is, and where Choice Scarf is. Could there be a hidden Red Card too? Ask all these questions and more!
Collinsville Regional Team:
I enjoy the team, the Volcarona is cool, not something I would run this weekend.
Zygarde/Solgaleo
If you plan on going to time in every Bo3 round, then bring Zygarde/Solgaleo. This team has proven over the Moon series that it is a top archetype to be taken seriously. It's very prevalent in the Mid-Western area and any player going to Fort Wayne should be prepared for it. It's a popular choice for Chicago/Illinois players so be on the lookout!
Lunala/Groudon
This team has done extremely well at the past couple Regional events and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again this weekend. I haven't faced this team too often so I don't have much say in how to face it. You have Trick and
Yveltal/Groudon
I truly thought this archetype was knocked out of the running. There are too many Tapu Koko’s running around for this archetype to work like it used to, and yet, with a players ability and wit, they can pilot this team to success. This variant with Cherrim is very dangerous for players to encounter due to Cherrim’s ability in Sun, Flower Gift gives a +1 to Attack and Special Defense to Cherrim and it’s partner Pokémon. You better believe all Pokémon on this team will be surviving Xerneas’ +2 Moonblast. Watch out for the potential Trick Room set up from Stakataka as well. Groudon is usually run with a Choice Band to do as much damage as possible. Focus on taking out Cherrim and cycling Intimidates against this team.
Kyogre/Lunala
This team was one that I had never really encountered before last weekend. I’ve heard the combination, but I had never faced it, until now. Crobat is easily the scariest part of this team. With access to Tailwind, Brave Bird, Taunt, Super Fang, Haze and more, this is not a Pokemon to be taken lightly. Paired next to a Lunala, a Turn 1 Moongeist Beam and Super Fang are enough to take out most Pokemon. It’s best to set up some form of Speed Control against this team to shut down Crobat. Be wary of the Tsareena in case you are looking to Fake Out Kyogre or Tapu Koko. Crobat could have its Inner Focus ability too. You never know what the Bat will show!
Blaze/Bish
Try your best to avoid this team. To be honest, it's a pain to deal with. You'll never guess where the Z-crystal is, and HOW DO YOU DEAL WITH BLAZIKEN AND BISHARP ON THE FIELD AT THE SAME TIME. You obviously have an Amoongus to deal with Trick Room users, and if Blaziken has it's ability Speed Boost, it's only going to be getting faster. Not to mention that Bisharp becomes even more powerful with Dark Aura from Yveltal.
Dusk Mane Necrozma/Kyogre
Plain and simple, a team that started out 2019 in Sun Series as a big upset, its hyped died down, but players in the So-Cal area have been able to bring great success with this team in Moon Series. What intrests me the most is that there have been small blips on my research radar that involve this team composition and I always keep it at the back of my mind because of how good Dusk Mane Necrozma's ability is. BLANK ABILITY makes Super-Effective Damage only do 75% damage rather than the normal amount of damage, making this Pokemon's longevity and potential on the playing field as a stubborn Pokemon to knock out. One reason to not be too worried about this matchup is that Groudon and Lunala are too popular for this team composition to do as well as it can in other areas like Southern California. Players in the local scene tend to use these Pokemon as well as Groudon and Yveltal. While the Yveltal hype may have died down after Dallas Regionals, I fully expect to see that Dark Bacon Boi this weekend.
Kyogre on this team composition is really to help Dusk Mane Necrozma. While Kyogre can hold its own, fire type attacks going into Dusk Mane Necrozma will do little damage due to Kyogre's Drizzle ability. It's best to be prepared for Rain to be on the field. If you're playing with Groudon, be sure to scout out whether or not the Kyogre is the Choice Scarf variant. It's common for this team to run Trick Room on Dusk Mane Necrozma to counter opposing Tailwind teams.
Xerneas/Yveltal
This team has incredible adaptability. That’s what made this team so intimidating at Dallas Regionals. What I love most is that you can Intimidate and Snarl your opponent's teams to barely do any damage to your Pokémon, while at the same time, you’re able to get off big damage from Xerneas and other support Pokémon. Assuming nobody is running Aura Break Zygarde, unlike those Aussie’s down under (Henry I’m talking about you), you’re in the clear to run this team as long as your positioning and match up knowledge for the team is top notch. Facing off against this team can be challenging, but with Groudon or Kyogre, it doesn’t take too much to topple it. Groudon with a Rock Type move is extremely helpful to hit Yveltal, but be sure to be bulky enough to hit it. Maybe even bringing a Tapu Lele or Tsareena next to Groudon/Kyogre will be enough to ensure a Sucker Punch doesn’t come out of Yveltal.
Shedninja/Ditto
Running this Pokémon is simple. Take out everything you think can hit you with a super-effective move, and then win the game. Yes, it is truly easy, unless, your opponent runs a move on every Pokémon that can hit Shedninja for super-effective damage. Overall, you’ll find Shedninja on a weather-based team with Kyogre. Sometimes you’ll see it with Groudon. If you see a Tapu Fini, be aware that Scarf-Soak strategies might be headed your way and so a Grass or Electric-type move will be necessary to take it down. This is a troll team, but it’s been around the area and it’s fun for Premier Challenges.
As for Ditto, it could run a Power Herb, Berry, or even a Quick Claw to attempt to outspeed and copy a Pokémon you’ve set up like a Xerneas. There could even be a Red Card on Ditto to completely copy and then remove your Geomancy’d Xerneas from the field. Be careful of the purple jello.
SLEEPER TEAM PICK
This team has seen two Top Cuts in the last two regionals. Keep your eyes peeled. Ohio Players may be lurking in our waters this weekend.
Monkey See, Ape Go and Do
As you may have heard, on March 28th, 2019, Passimian and Oranguru were officially released with their hidden abilities: Defitant and Symbiosis. Any time a pokemon is released with a hidden ability for the first time, competitive players will constantly consider whether or not those pokemon are viable and what it could mean for tournament weekend. If these had been dropped earlier in Moon Series, or even in Sun Series, we could have seen a potential splash from both of these pokemon at a pokemon Regional. It's still entirely possible for them to have an effect in Ultra series, but that is a post for another day. The big question on my mind is whether or not players will bring Passimian or Oranguru to try and bring some last minute success before the last Moon events of the Moon Series season.
Here are some relevant calcs to be aware of that I've been seeing several friends posting on twitter. Thank you to MoxieBoosted for posting a bunch of calculations on twitter.
Notable Scarf Defiant Passimian Calcs Thread:
+1 252+ Atk Passimian Close Combat vs. 236 HP / 4 Def Incineroar: 344-408 (172 - 204%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Passimian Gunk Shot vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Xerneas: 222-262 (109.9 - 129.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Passimian Close Combat vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Kyogre: 174-205 (98.8 - 116.4%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Passimian Gunk Shot vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Tapu Lele: 180-214 (123.2 - 146.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Passimian Close Combat vs. 68 HP / 4 Def Kartana: 168-200 (117.4 - 139.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Passimian Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Stakataka: 228-268 (135.7 - 159.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Passimian Gunk Shot vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Tapu Koko: 164-194 (112.3 - 132.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Passimian Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 60 Def Tapu Fini: 180-212 (101.6 - 119.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Thanks to Nimbasa City Post, VGC Stats, and Trainer Tower for teams and resources.
Thanks for reading!
-Ryan
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