Dallas Update: The Night Before The Moon

How We Doin'! Ryan Pb Hebert here! I am currently in Dallas, TX, in my hotel room as we speak. I felt the desire after today's Midseason Showdown to get something down in writing for all of you to read. More specifically, a preview of my prediction on what to expect at Dallas Regionals 2019.

A note: Moon Series is a niche meta of mind games. With the introduction of Z-crystals into the rotating ruleset, players are left to guess where and when a perfectly timed Z-move may appear.

Today I played in the best-of-1, midseason showdown. I went 3-3 and got to see a variety of teams, from both higher level players and new players I have never met before. As with everything I say, I respect my opponents and what they're creatively using no matter what. Because it is the night before Dallas, I do not want to reveal specific names and teams of those I faced or talked to. I would rather help you all understand what many first turns will look like tomorrow morning and afternoon!

To put it simply, my prediction for the most common leads of tomorrow are the following:

Lunala + Tapu Koko

This offensive powerhouse of a lead not only threatens most teams, and I found that the options a player has with this lead are incredibly vast. For example, a player can choose to Taunt, Nature's Madness, Volt Switch, and Electro-Web with Tapu Koko on their first turn. More than likely, if you have a formidable threat such as Groudon, chances are that a Volt Switch might go into your other pokémon to switch out Tapu Koko and most likely switch in an Incineroar for the Intimidate drop. Your opponent could go for an attack instead of preserving Tapu Koko, but depending on your team composition versus this starting pair, you can pretty much guess what your opponent might do with their Tapu Koko.

Lunala is the “mystery” of this lead. The move pool of Lunala is vast with options of Speed Control, Roar, Hypnosis, Wide Guard, Psych Up, and Will O’ Wisp. With its powerful base 200 Lunalium Z move, Menancing Moonraze Maelstrom, it’s a threat to be reckoned with. That is if it’s holding its Z-crystal. While many may resort to using their Z move, I want to go out on a limb and say that you’ll be better off with something else. Compared to Kyogre’s Waterium Z move, Lunala’s is one of the most popular calculated Z-moves that you must plan for when playing on Saturday. My gut tells me that electric seed would do you justice, and I truly believe the item should be something in the realm of the Colbur Berry. This way your opponent won’t see an item like electric seed pop with terrain and the mind games would officially begin. What your opponent doesn’t know, may just be the thing that gives you a win. Yveltal is going to be extremely popular and so my suggestion would be a Colbur Berry.

Lunala’s Shadow Shield is helpful against strong dark type attacks from Yveltal, but a Colbur Berry can make the difference. Overall, the consideration for Electric Seed is still very important for foes like Incineroar or Kartana who try and use Knock Off.

The psychic Z crystal would be better used on Tapu Lele, and the fighting Z crystal is really a tech for Stakataka, Incineroar, and other small threats that may threaten Lunala’s offensive pressure.

Yveltal + Tapu Koko

Popularized in Anaheim on Raghav Malavyia’s first-place winning team, players have realized the potential of denial and sheer power with Yveltal and Tapu Koko. Similarly, to the initial lead of Lunala/Tapu Koko, this lead proves to overthrow and deny Lunala from doing what it does best. The dark/flying typing of Yveltal comes in handy against Lunala. Lunala usually carries Moongeist Beam and Psyshock. Combined with a usual Assault Vest or Careful nature, Yveltal will comfortably take any hit from Lunala. Not to mention that your opponents Yveltal can potentially be a physical phenom or a special spectacle of strength.

What separates Yveltal from Lunala is typing and what sort of control it can abuse while on the field. Yveltal can be run with the move Snarl. Lowering both opponents Special Attack stats by 1. This can be devastating and game-changing to any team reliant on powerful special attackers. Xerneas is thought to be an obvious counter to Yveltal with its fairy typing, and yet, with Snarl in play, a plus two geomancy can turn into a neutral one if your opponent is able to have Incineroar and Yveltal with Snarl, on the field, at the exact same time. With the obvious counter being nerfed by Snarl-Spam shenanigans. This explains why in the past week and a half, the usage of Wild Charge Tapu Koko has gone up. Some are even going so far as to include Electrium Z with Wild Charge Koko just to apply even more pressure. As many players can recall from 2017 and 2018, Z move Tapu Koko is a force to be reckoned with.

Overall, trying to find ways to counter Yveltal without sacrificing too much on your team is the real balancing act of early meta Moon Series. Now, would it be a bad thing to prepare for Yveltal on Saturday? No. Not at all. I think you’ll be seeing it more than Lunala.

Xerneas+ Smeargle/Amoongus

This is a common lead coming back in a common fashion. Geomancy Xerneas next to something that can hopefully allow Geomancy to get off and then stay for at least the next turn. This could be in the form of fake out, wide guard, redirection, and Speed Control. These are the most common strategies players will attempt to use for Xerneas to keep Geomancy after it uses it, and Smeargle is the Pokémon to step up to the job.

Facing off against this team should be quite simple in the mind of any player. Please, before you lock in your Pokémon, remember to deny Smeargle the chance to put you to sleep with Spore or Lovely Kiss. If you don’t have a way to stop Smeargle from putting you to sleep, the battle Is as good as done. Pivoting with your sleeping Pokémon will take away precious sleep turns and your opponents Xerneas will simply take advantage of the situation and Geomancy. During the next turn, Xerneas will begin its reign of power by fainting your sleeping Pokémon and will win the battle.

Overall, you must have a game plan against this lead. Whether it's a taunt user, a faster fake out than max speed Smeargle (139 speed), or some other creative way, have a plan and be confident in yourself. Heck, even a Safety Goggles Stakataka could do the trick!

Other Teams to Expect:

While there is a general metagame a majority of players are going by, it doesn’t go without mentioning that recalling the list of players from the Trainertower.com Dallas preview article should have players taking a close look at trends from those who tend to stray away from what is expected.

Teams to remember:

Tornadus/Kyogre/Amoongus